Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
